Natsu 2026 Predictions
Just a day before the basho, here is the guess as to how the May tournament may shake out.
You can sign up for the Natsu 2026 game on Fantasizr here: https://www.fantasizr.com/sport/Fantasy-Basho-Natsu-2026
The initial matches for Day One and Day Two have been announced for the Natsu basho. That means its time for me to make my regular predictions.
But first, there is some big news, or really two different pieces of news. Both Yokozuna Onosato and Ozeki Aonishiki are absent from the tournament. Onosato is still not recovered from his left shoulder problem, and he’ll finally fully rest it. Aonishiki has a broken toe on his left foot, which is absolutely the kind of thing you shouldn’t do sumo with. Unfortunately, he will be dropped back to Sekiwake for July. His previously sterling record and youth means he should be able to get back to Ozeki even if he doesn’t get it automatically with 10 wins in Nagoya.
The absence of Onosato and Aonishiki make predicting this basho somehow more difficult. For all the world, this should be Hoshoryu’s basho. Two main rivals are out, Kirishima is dealing with a re-promotion to Ozeki, and no one else has shown consistent Yusho form of late. Of course, Hoshoryu has had a nasty habit of showing Jun-Yusho form. His last Emperor’s Cup was January of 2025, when he made it to Yokozuna. Since then, he’s been the runner up in four basho. He seems most likely to get 11 wins or better. I have him for 12 and the Yusho, but I don’t feel good about it.
This one feels like a surprise Maegashira yusho. In reviewing my predictions, I couldn’t find a Maegashira I thought could make a run to 12 or 13 victories. That’s why it’s always a surprise. As I always do, I made sure these predictions added up to the number of available wins. With two rikishi out, that’s 20 per day for a total of 300. For some to have big win totals, others have to have low win totals. Those seemed as tough to predict as well.
See you later today for the Day One Preview and tomorrow for the Day One Recap.
