Natsu 2025 Day Ten
Two-thirds of the way through the May tournament, and here's how the sumo stands.
Public League Leaderboard
Scores from Fantasizr
Yusho Arasoi
10 Wins
02 Ozeki East Onosato
9 Wins
01 Yokozuna East Hoshoryu
07 Komusubi West Wakatakakage
20 Maegashira #7 East Hakuoho
24 Maegashira #9 East Aonishiki
Notable Maneuvers
Oshitaoshi. Onosato once again took a hard tachiai and sent his opponent back. Today, Ichiyamamoto was able to move around after Onosato’s counter-attack, which meant Onosato had to shove him out impressively hard to win.
Match of the Day
24 Maegashira #9 East Aonishiki versus 07 Komusubi West Wakatakakage
Aonishiki saw a huge jump in his strength of schedule on Day Ten by facing Komusubi and former yusho winner Wakatakakage. At the tachiai, he looked like he belonged, getting inside on Wakatakakage and starting a slapfest that was aiming for a grip. Aonishiki actually came out on top, heading towards a crucial yorikiri win. Instead, Wakatakakage lifted his left leg at the tawara, spun sideways, and used that to win by under-shoulder-swing-down. Aonishiki is already very good and will be sensational. Right now, he can be beaten by veteran guile.
Recap
Aonishiki and Hakuoho lost in back-to-back matches to Sanyaku opponents in Komusubi Wakatakakage and Sekiwake Daieisho respectively. Neither are by any means bad losses, but they were both crucially second losses. That put Aonishiki and Hakuoho level with Wakatakakage at 8-2, giving Onosato space even if he lost to Ichiyamamoto. He didn’t need it, as the Yokozuna hopeful easily sent Ichiyamamoto flying off the dohyo.
The real pressure was then on Hoshoryu, who needed to beat Ura to stay at 2 losses and have any shout at a yusho. He pulled it off, even though Ura really wanted to go up-and-under on Hoshoryu. Hoss read it and pushed on him for the rear push out win. It was that kind of day, full of rear shoves, slap downs, and weirdly effective pulls. It was not a day of magnificent sumo, but wins are wins. Hoshoryu’s win means he is the fourth member of the 8-2 group, who are the only ones with a real chance of unseating Onosato.
A two-win advantage after Day Ten isn’t a guaranteed yusho, but overcoming three requires Onosato to drop at least three bouts while also having a 7-3 rikishi win out and all four 8-2 rikishi to stumble in some fashion. The math gets difficult. It’s not that Daieisho or Kirishima couldn’t win out. Or even Oshoma or Meisei or Atamifuji or someone else. They just also need a ton of luck, especially when it comes to Onosato.
Onosato’s path is fairly obvious. He has five matches and five remaining Sanyaku opponents—Wakatakakage, Kirishima, Daieisho, Kotozakura, and Hoshoryu. He gets Wakatakakage on Day Eleven. Perhaps Kotozakura could be removed from the slate if he loses a few more times. That may also rely on Aonishiki and Hakuoho rebounding and needing to face a fellow yusho candidate. They get Kotozakura and Hoshoryu respectively on Day Eleven, so the challenges are starting.
Onosato is likely to drop one match, simply because Zensho Yusho are so rare. Wakatakakage and Hoshoryu also each get direct shots to pull Onosato back. This yusho race is by no means over. Yet if they both beat Onosato and win out, they will only set up a playoff scenario. (Hoshoryu beat Wakatakakage on Day One, so they can both still land at 13-2.) Onosato’s high odds of winning this yusho are because of what he has already done. Two-thirds of the way through the Natsu 2025 Basho, Onosato is undefeated with a two-win advantage while looking strong in each match. Appreciate his skill and dominance, even if the outcome gets a little boring.