Nagoya 2025 Predictions

With just one day to go before live sumo, here are some guesses at how everyone will do in the July tournament.

Join us at Fantasizr for the Nagoya basho. You have just a few hours to make your first selections!

Well, I am once again one day away from a basho, which means it is my self-imposed time to make predictions for the basho. My Natsu predictions were a real mixed bag. I did have that Onosato and Hoshoryu would get a Yusho and Jun-Yusho, but I had it backwards. I said Hoshoryu would win it all, and delay the Yokozuna promotion for sumo’s newest star. I did guess that Hakuoho and Aonishiki would be strong contenders, which was right. I just didn’t foresee Hakuoho’s mid-basho injury. Oh, well.

These predictions are a smidge less confident than usual. I really didn’t want to say “Yeah, Onosato is going to keep winning.” It seems wild that he would get a third straight Yusho, especially as a shin-Yokozuna. On the other hand, he probably should be the favorite for the yusho until proven otherwise. I just couldn’t do it. So once again, I am saying Hoshoryu will pip Onosato to the Emperor’s Cup.

Below the Yokozuna is also complicated. Daieisho and Endo are out for the start of the basho, and as usual I don’t include them at all in these. That also means the grand win total for all 40 competing Makuuchi Rikishi should be 300. (20 top division matches for all 15 days of the basho means 300 wins.) I overshot that on the first pass, although I also pretty much had 6’s, 7’s, and 8’s for most rikishi. A few Maegashira will have absolutely disastrous basho, but knowing who will lose an embarrassing amount of matches ahead of time is tough.

Here’s the predictions. See you for the first day’s preview in the afternoon, and the full Day One write up tomorrow morning.