Hatsu 2026 Predictions
With the tournament almost here, our regular guess at how the sumo will play out is here for the first basho of 2026.
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As I usually do, I’ve put my predictions for each rikishi’s win total on the internet for all to see right before the basho. This has regularly been an every two month ritual of looking dumb. I’m fine with that, and, frankly, my guesses for Kyushu 2025 don’t look terrible in hindsight.
My major miss was one I kept making in 2025, and which I may be running right into for 2026. I have been predicting an Aonishiki slow down for awhile and he just keeps getting better. His Kyushu victory was a capper to a rather unbelievable 2025. It also made him a brand new Ozeki for 2026. I still am predicting him for his lowest Makuuchi win total ever. That’s still 10 wins, in an always tricky Ozeki debut.
Yet these predictions were tough. Both Yokozuna are hurt, but everyone is competing to start the basho. Onosato is coming back from the injury that made him miss the final day of Kyushu, while Hoshoryu has his knee wrapped after practice sessions. They could be fine once competition. Or they could both be out by Day Five. If they make it to Day Fifteen, they’ll be in contention.
The top of the Banzuke isn’t the only place that’s confusing. As always, I made sure these add up to 315 (21 wins for all 15 days of the basho). So I was moving numbers because I could see a lot of possibilities.
Yoshinofuji has been good in his short Maegashira career, which means he’s now facing the full Sanyaku slate for the first time. Abi is ranked lower than he has been in a long time, but also looked absolutely wrecked in November. Asanoyama makes a return from injury after a great basho in Juryo. He could bulldoze the lower part of the Banzuke. He is equally likely to suffer a weird injury and be gone after a week. Now tell me if you ever want to guess how Ura, Shodai, Kotoshoho, or Ryuden might do in any particular basho.
That’s kind of the fun of predictions. You Can imagine almost anything before the basho. But the action starts tomorrow. Look for the first daily preview later today if you’re a paid subscriber. And everyone will get the full recap tomorrow morning.
