Haru 2025 Power Rankings
A look at where every rikishi stands heading into the March sumo tournament.
Live sumo begins on March 9th, but you can sign up to play Fantasy Basho on Fantasizr right now.
Once again, it is time to look at the Power Rankings before heading into a basho. Usually, I make these and wonder who might be on top. That wasn’t exactly a mystery this time. Hoshoryu won the yusho after a jun-yusho, earning him a Yokozuna promotion. Spoiler-but-not-really-a-spoiler: He is on top.
The next rikishi listed is more interesting. And the exact order and specific numbers the formula spit out behind Hoshoryu are interesting as well. We’ve also got a massive change in how the Power Rankings work on the bottom end. That isn’t because the formula has changed, but because some odd cases are now gone.
That isn’t to say there are no odd cases for Haru. But before we get to the Power Rankings, a reminder on how they’re figured.
Take the Fantasy Basho score for each Makuuchi basho across the last year.
Add 10 points for a Yusho and 5 points for a Jun-Yusho.
Multiple any Juryo win totals by 1.5
Take any Makushita win totals as they are.
Multiple the most recent basho by six, the next most recent by five, and so on over the last year. Add those totals up, then add a Bonus which is the same as the current game’s budget number.
NOTES:
Hoshoryu leads all rikishi by the Power Rankings formula with a score of 598. Behind him by about 50 points is Onosato. Back from Onosato by about 70 points is Kotozakura, who then is about 30 points ahead of Wakatakakage. Oho begins a small cluster about 25 points back of Wakatakakage. I don’t put much stock into small point differentials. This Power Rankings formula is a guidepost, not an oracle. Still, those are significant separations. Hoshoryu is your new Yokozuna, which means he has been very good recently. Onosato has arguably had the best past year all things considered. He just has back-to-back 10 solid basho, rather than Yusho challenges. And while Kotozakura was fairly awful in January, he went 14-1 for the Yusho in November. Those three are the top ranked rikishi, top the Power Rankings, and have the legitimate case as the top performing rikishi recently.
Oho and Daieisho are a good example of why you shouldn’t focus too much on the exact points totals. Both men are Sekiwake in March, and each has had strong performances of late. Oho gets the small nod here because of his Jun-Yusho performance in January. Daieisho has been more consistent. Perhaps Daieisho should get the nod for his experience, but Oho is more believable as someone who found a new level in January. View them as essentially level here.
The surprise of the last basho, Kinbozan, is in the eighth spot here almost entirely on his stellar performance in Hatsu. I am personally intrigued by what Kinbozan’s career will look like, although I also wouldn’t be surprised if January 2025 will stand as his high water mark. He is JUST Outside the official joi-jin line, so expect some high-level matchups without a full Sanyaku slate. Opponents will also study his January tape and be more prepared for him. March will be a challenge for the Big Kazakh.
With the retirement of Terunofuji in January and Takakeisho’s intai in September, the problem of frequent injury absences among top-ranked rikishi is now gone from the Power Rankings. (Apologies if typing this just cursed one of the Ozeki….) However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t still rikishi whose totals maybe don’t reflect their abilities heading into Haru. Take Takerufuji. There is a 0 on his ledger for last May, followed by a 3. Those were entirely because of injury. He came back and won 13 in Juryo, then 10 in back-to-back Makuuchi basho. He also will be at the highest rank he’s ever fought at in March as a Maegashira #6 West. He was Maegashira #6 East in May, but didn’t mount the dohyo. Takerufuji is a very good rikishi. He’s also still proving himself.
The other rikishi whose totals may not show exactly how strong they’ve performed recently is Aonishiki. For those unfamiliar, Aonishiki is a 20 year old (turns 21 at the end of the basho) Ukrainian wrestler who has done nothing but win since joining Ozumo in November 2023. He spent two tournaments in Juryo, where he went a combined 22-8. He never lost more than one match in Makushita or lower. He is about as bright a prospect as exists. Yet he also was in Makushita two basho ago, has never faced the kind of competition he will see in March. I think he’s probably going to better than Asakoryu, Tokihayate, Sadanoumi, Shirokuma, Kotoshoho, or Mitakeumi. But those are the rikishi that will be fighting to avoid a Juryo demotion. Staying in Makuuchi will be a huge achievement for any debutant, whatever their previous track record.